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全世界太关注G20大阪峰会了,漏掉了这个重要会议

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld 2019年07月03日

这个峰会由美国政府组织,巴林王储主持,会上出现了体现新思路的不同声音,也展示了实现巴勒斯坦发展梦想的经济资源。

英国前首相托尼·布莱尔和白宫高级顾问贾里德·库什纳于2019年6月26日在巴林麦纳麦参加美国主导的“从和平到繁荣”研讨会。图片来源:BNA Pool/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

有关美国民主党总统候选人最近辩论的评论一再出现,这或许让大家觉得全世界都只关心这场“家庭食物大战”。没有看到或听到上月巴林经济峰会任何相关消息的人绝不止你一个。

不过,尽管美国媒体基本上忽略了这次会议,但其他国家的新闻机构还是看到了一些不同凡响的历史性进展。本次峰会由美国政府组织,巴林王储主持,会上出现了体现新思路的不同声音,也展示了实现巴勒斯坦发展梦想的经济资源。

到会的逾300名高级代表来自于30个国家,包括澳大利亚和阿根廷,迪拜和德里,尼日利亚和挪威,甚至是不大可能同时出现的沙特和卡塔尔以及希腊和土耳其。会议明确提出,其目的是扭转过去50年的和平进程(也就是奥斯陆、巴黎和安纳波利斯中东问题会议),或者说,先建立共同的经济愿景,再开始政治上的“地盘争夺战”(我自愿在本次峰会的一个讨论会上担任主持人)。

白宫高级顾问贾里德·库什纳披露了500亿美元的经济计划,如果付诸实施,则有望在未来达成政治上的和平协议。他的计划让反对派得以憧憬紧张局势平息后会有怎样的生活质量。此项方案回顾了孟加拉国和韩国等曾经因为政治动荡而四分五裂的国家在经济发展方面的非凡成就,然后详细说明了拨款、低息贷款和私人投资的具体用途,其目的是让巴勒斯坦经济规模翻番,创造100万个就业机会,将巴勒斯坦的失业率从30%降至个位数,并让50%的贫困人口脱困。

这个巴林方案提出了约190个具体项目,其目标包括将出口收入占巴勒斯坦GDP的比重从17%提高到40%,确保可靠供电,使饮用水供应增加一倍,让更多的学校用上高速数据服务,提高女性就业参与率,并将外商直接投资提高500%。它将加大对旅游、农业、数字服务、住房和制造等关键行业的投资,同时改善基础设施,比如投资50亿美元修建连接加沙和约旦河西岸的高速公路。虽然其中许多项目的目标和世界银行等组织此前的发展规划重合,但这是第一个旨在将这些措施全部整合在一起并提供充足资金的方案。

黑石集团的首席执行官苏世民、美国电话电报公司的首席执行官兰德尔·斯蒂芬森等美国企业负责人也在会上为这些计划背书。到会的几十位高管都表示,这些提议代表着吸引人的投资机会,其经济目标非常合理,而它们所处的法治环境也有望助其蓬勃发展。

6月26日,本次峰会闭幕式在麦纳麦四季酒店宴会厅举行。会场上,美国财政部部长史蒂文·姆努钦带头让大家安静下来。包括主持人、巴林王储萨勒曼·本·哈迈德·阿勒哈利法在内,各国高官、外交使节和企业首脑都赞许地注视着海湾国家外长和财长在巴林外交大臣哈立德·本·艾哈迈德·阿勒哈利法之后登上主席台,后者表示:“以色列是本地区的一个国家,当然会继续存在下去。就像戴维营峰会显著影响了历史走向一样……如果本次会议取得成功,如果我们在此基础上加以努力,而且获得关注和动力,它就有可能第二次影响历史走向。”

距离产生美

很多媒体报道的重点都是谁没有参加巴林会议。巴勒斯坦政府呼吁抵制本次峰会。控制加沙地带的哈马斯组织则对大会予以谴责。同时,受以色列政治局势波动影响,本雅明·内塔尼亚胡政府未派出代表团。但要说有什么影响的话,那就是本次会议验证了“距离产生美”这句话。在相互争斗了几十年的巴勒斯坦和以色列政客双双缺席的情况下,本次会议不可能为即将参加大选的内塔尼亚胡包装成一次拉票活动,这就使对话有望展开,友谊有望得到发展。

对怀疑者来说,这些人的缺席给抨击本次会议提供了口实。巴以两个阵营的反对者都认为外交协议应该先于经济协议。更具体的说,许多人反对巴林方案的原因是它并未提供能够帮助巴勒斯坦建国的所谓的两国解决方案。

贾里德·库什纳在6月26日的开幕式发言中回应了这样的想法,他说“过去反复出现的令人绝望的情况足以”说明局势是如何难以改变。苏世民则对与会者表示“从大局出发并且拥有梦想很重要”。

作为对话促进人,我几乎参加了本次峰会的所有正式和非正式活动。我甚至没有听到一句反犹太复国运动的话,而我原本以为在以色列的历史批评人士多于其同盟的情况下会出现这样的言论。相反,阿拉伯国家领导人的表态和库什纳以及苏世民类似。谈判专家总是说要点在于把人们的情感和他们的立场分离开来,然后再把存在分歧的立场和有可能存在共同点的问题分离开来。看来本次巴林峰会做到了这一点,人们的发言以及发表这些言论的人让大家情绪高涨。

许多个世纪以来,犹太人和巴勒斯坦人的关系既有长期暴力对抗,也有长时间的和平共处。在本次会议上,巴勒斯坦著名企业首脑、约旦河西岸城镇希伯伦一大氏族领袖艾希拉法·贾巴里讲述了他和犹太定居者的关系是如何的深厚——他甚至为巴勒斯坦人和犹太定居者的公司建立了联合会,以便双方合作。就像他在6月26日所说:“跟以色列人合作对我来说没有什么问题。该向前迈进了。”在他发言时,微笑点头的不光是十几位和他一样的巴勒斯坦企业负责人,还有十几位到会的以色列公司领袖,包括海运大亨舍罗米·弗吉尔。

尽管会议厅的空调很足,但在发言时贾巴里的额头仍然渗出了亮晶晶的汗水。他讲完后,我走过去跟他握手,他则给了我一个熊抱。后来我了解到他参加会议并发言冒了怎样的风险。可悲的是,巴勒斯坦代表团的另一名成员回去之后在一次家庭活动中被巴勒斯坦政府逮捕,代表团的其他成员也发现自己的家遭到了搜查。贾巴里告诉《耶路撒冷邮报》:“巴勒斯坦政府不想要和平。他们告诉那些商人的家人,他们会因为参加巴林会议而被通缉。” 贾巴里还说本次会议是个“巨大的成功,而且正是因此,[巴勒斯坦总统马哈茂德·]阿巴斯才非常担心。”

重新燃起希望

巴林峰会的设想代表着希望精神,这种精神来自于巴勒斯坦和以色列企业领导人及其遍布全球的同行,它为该地区越发失望的年轻人带来了受欢迎的答案,和因为巴以失败的政治领导而越发盛行的犬儒主义相比,它反其道而行之。几十年的暴力磨难让年轻人开始要求作出改变,也让他们对阿拉伯邻居的直接诉求敞开怀抱。巴林会议探讨的那些计划为年轻人提供了寻找价值和成效的途径。

巴勒斯坦人的情况尤其由此,他们被集体默认为“难民”的时间已经太过长久。沙特的一位高级外交官在最近表示,巴勒斯坦人不应该继续自视为受害者,这样才能更好地为自己争取权力。

阿联酋的Emmar Properties公司是全球最大的商业营建商之一。该公司的创始人穆罕默德·阿拉巴在会上说:“年轻一代不会让我们被过去束缚。巴勒斯坦人是自己人。我们每天早晨都乐观地醒来,希望能做更多的事……通过创造就业与收入机会并且填补基本服务缺口,私营行业能帮助一个脆弱的经济体蓄积能量,并让当地民众的心里燃起希望。”

库尔特·勒温、赫伯特·科尔曼等冲突管理专家一直谨慎地表示,和对转型后生活状态的共同愿景相比,计划执行的发散性细节不那么有价值。在政治解决方案获得接受前,各方都必须设想一种远好于现状而且非常令人渴望的情境。

也许是没有进行过这方面的研究,《纽约时报》在6月28日的社论中将巴林方案斥为“不切实际的异想天开”,而且也像历史上毫无依据的老调调一样说外交解决方案必须走在经济规划之前。这篇社论忽略的问题是“政治解决方案先行论”的失败历史。到目前为止,这种论调通常都意味着没有解决方案。可惜,持同样观点而又自私的倡议团体、国际组织和政客非常之多。

见证了巴林精神的人则有不同的感受。就像曾经在奥巴马政府中担任中东和平特使的大卫·马可夫斯基在一次活动上对我说的那样:“我希望巴林会议之后……我们不光会说我们提出了一项令人信服的最终解决方案,我们还要向前迈进,以便让它在短期内变得更实际一些。巴以双方在桌子下面的合作已经进行了好些年,现在这张桌子看来已经被抬了起来,因为它下面的人太多了。”

就是在这样一张腾空的桌子下面,巴勒斯坦企业负责人和海湾其他国家的领导人以及以色列、非洲、欧洲和美洲的资助人站在了一起。这些领导者的私心已经进入警戒状态,因为实用主义驱走了当地人的困惑。希望他们把握住给这个地区注入活力的机会,并且接受跨越了地区和种族界限的经济资源和投资。(财富中文网)

本文作者杰弗里·索南菲尔德是耶鲁大学管理学院高级副院长、管理实务专业莱斯特·克朗教席教授,他在巴林“从和平到繁荣”经济峰会上担任主持人。

译者:Charlie

审校:夏林

Amid the constant recycling of commentary about the recent Democratic Party candidate debates, you might have thought the world was riveted only by this intra-family food fight. If you didn’t read or hear anything about last month’s Bahrain economic summit, you are not alone.

But while U.S. media largely ignored this event, the global media saw something remarkable and historic unfold. The summit, organized by the U.S. government and hosted by Bahrain’s crown prince, showcased different voices with new ideas and the economic resources to bring to life dreams of progress in Palestine.

Over 300 top delegates came from 30 countries, from Australia and Argentina; Dubai and Delhi; Nigeria and Norway; and even such unlikely pairings as Saudi Arabia and Qatar or Greece and Turkey. The explicit purpose was to reverse the sequence of the past 50 years of peace efforts (e.g. Oslo, Paris, Annapolis) – that is, to share an economic vision before delving into divisive political real estate battles. (I served as a volunteer moderator at one panel during the summit.)

White House Senior Advisor Jared Kushner unveiled a $50 billion economic plan, one whose implementation would be predicated on a future political peace agreement. His plan gives the opposing parties a chance to visualize what the quality of life could be like when tensions subside. Drawing on the remarkable economic-development successes in other countries that have been torn by past political violence, including Bangladesh and South Korea, the proposal details highly specific uses of grants, low-interest loans, and private investment intended to double the size of the Palestinian economy, create one million new jobs, reduce Palestinian unemployment from 30% to single digits, and reduce Palestinian poverty by 50%.

Roughly 190 specific projects in the Bahrain plan would aim to increase export revenue from 17% to 40% of Palestinian GDP; ensure reliable electricity; double the drinkable water supply; connect more schools to high-speed data services; increase women’s participation in the work force; and generate a 500% increase in foreign direct investment. The plan would boost investment in key industries such as tourism, agriculture, digital services, housing, and manufacturing; it would also provide for infrastructure enhancements such as a $5 billion high-speed highway connecting Gaza to the West Bank. While many of these projects echo goals of earlier development plans from the World Bank and other organizations, this is the first plan that aims to comprehensively integrate these efforts—and to adequately fund them.

U.S. business leaders, including Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman and AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson, were present to give these plans their endorsement. They and dozens of other executives cited the proposals as attractive investment opportunities, with very reasonable financial targets, in an environment where the rule of law could help them thrive.

A hush fell over the Four Seasons banquet hall in Manama during June 26 closing panel, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Top officials, diplomats and business leaders, including the host, Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, watched approvingly as foreign affairs and finance ministers from the Gulf Coast countries joined Bahraini Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa on stage. The minister proclaimed: “Israel is a country in the region and it is there to stay, of course. As much as Camp David was a major game-changer…if this succeeds, and we build on it, and it attracts attention and momentum, this would be the second game-changer.”

Absence made hearts grow fonder

Much media coverage focused on who was not present in Bahrain. The Palestinian Authority called for a boycott of the conference. Hamas, which effectively rules the Gaza Strip, condemned it. And due to Israeli political turmoil, the administration of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not send a delegation. But if anything, this event demonstrated that “absence makes the heart grow fonder.” In the absence of Palestinian and Israeli politicians who have been frustrating each other for decades, and with no risk of the event being packaged as a campaign rally for Netanyahu, who faces upcoming elections, dialogue and comity could grow.

To cynics, the absences provided ammunition to condemn the conference. Opponents allied with both the Palestinians and Israeli sides have argued that diplomatic agreements must precede economic ones. More specifically, many oppose the Bahrain approach because it doesn’t provide for a so-called two-state solution that creates a sovereign Palestinian nation.

Jared Kushner addressed this mindset in his opening comments on June 26, saying, “Enough of the old broken record” of handwringing over how things cannot change. Schwarzman told the attendees that “it is important to think big and to have a dream.”

As a discussion facilitator, I attended virtually every second of the formal and informal elements of this event. I did not hear even passing anti-Zionist comments, as much as I would have expected them in an atmosphere where Israel’s historic critics outnumbered its allies. Instead, Arab leaders echoed comments like Kushner’s and Schwarzman’s. Negotiation experts talk of the importance of separating the emotions of people from the positions they take, and then separating divisive positions from issues where there may be common ground. The Bahrain summit seemed to accomplish that, and spirits soared over what was said and who said it.

Over many centuries, relations between Jews and Palestinians have fluctuated between long periods of violent conflict and peaceful coexistence. At this conference, prominent Palestinian business leader Ashraf Jabari, who heads a large clan in Hebron on the West Bank, explained how he has advanced bonds with Jewish settlers—even creating a business association for Palestinian and settlement businesses to work collaboratively. As he said on June 26, “I have no problem working with Israel. It is time to move on.” Smiling and nodding as he spoke were not only a dozen fellow Palestinian leaders but also the dozen Israeli business leaders present, including shipping magnate Shlomi Fogel.

Despite the well air-conditioned ballroom, Jabari’s brow glistened with sweat as he addressed the group. I went to shake his hand after he spoke and he gave me a bear hug. Since then, I’ve learned what he put at risk by being there and speaking out. Sadly, another member of the Palestinian delegation was arrested by the Palestinian Authority at a family event upon returning home; other delegation members saw their homes raided. “The Palestinian Authority does not want peace. They told the families of the businessmen that they are wanted for participating in the Bahrain workshop,” Jabari told the Jerusalem Post, adding that the workshop was “a big success and that’s why [PA President Mahmoud] Abbas is very worried.”

Reviving hopes

The Bahrain summit’s projection of a spirit of hope, from Palestinian and Israeli business leaders and their peers around the globe, provides a welcome response to the growing dismay among younger people in the region—and a counter to growing cynicism about the failures of Israeli and Palestinian political leadership. Weary of decades of violence, younger people are demanding change and are open to direct appeal from their Arab neighbors. The plans discussed in Bahrain offer younger people a path to become relevant and effective.

That’s especially true of the Palestinians, whose communal identity has been trapped for too long in the default position of “refugee.” A senior Saudi diplomat recently said Palestinian should stop thinking of themselves as victims, the better to empower themselves.

Mohamed Allabar of the United Arab Emirates, founder of Emmar Properties and one of the world’s biggest commercial builders, told the conference, “The younger generation will not let us continue trapped by our past. Palestinian people are our people. We get up every morning positive, and we want to do more…By generating jobs, income opportunities and filling gaps in delivering basic services, the private sector can help build momentum behind a fragile economy and instill hope in the people of the region.”

Conflict management experts, including Kurt Lewin and Herbert Kelman, have cautioned that the diversionary details of plan execution are less valuable than a shared vision of how life could be after a transformation. Before a political solution can be sold, all parties have to imagine a highly desirable scenario far better than the status quo.

Perhaps unschooled in this research, the New York Times in an editorial on June 28 dismissed the Bahrain initiative as “big-dream plans divorced from reality,” echoing the historically unfounded cliché that diplomatic solutions must precede economic plans. What the Times overlooks is the failed history of “political solution first,” which so far has usually meant there will be no solution. There are myriad self-interested advocacy groups, international bodies, and politicians, unfortunately, who read from the same script.

People who witnessed the spirit of Bahrain feel otherwise. As former Obama administration Mideast peace envoy David Makovsky said to me at the event, “My hope is that after Bahrain…we’re not just saying we’ve put forth a compelling vision of an endgame, but we’re starting down that road to make it more tangible in the short term. Israeli-Arab cooperation has been going on for years under the table, but the table seems to be levitating, because it’s very crowded under there.”

It was under that levitating table that Palestinian business leaders joined with Arab leaders from around the Gulf Coast, along with Israeli, African, European and American sponsors. The self-interest of these leaders has been put on alert as confusion in the region gives way to pragmatism. Let’s hope leaders embrace the opportunities for regional vitality with economic resources and investments across the boundaries of religions and ethnicities.

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is Senior Associate Dean and Lester Crown Professor of Management Practice at the Yale School of Management. He served as a moderator of the Bahrain “Peace to Prosperity” economic summit.

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